Democratic Reputation and State Response to Separatist Movements

• In Event: Development, Conflict & Cooperation in the Global South: Bayesian Case Studies

Abstract

This paper investigates the variation in state responses to separatist claims. It proposes that a state’s desire to build and maintain its democratic reputation affect the ways in which it deals with separatist groups. As democracies are internally associated with rule-bounded competition and nonviolence in resolving incompatibilities, a state wishing to be considered as a democracy must signal its democratic credibility by showing a willingness to resolve separatist conflicts peacefully. The paper hypothesizes that as conditions that undermine a state’s democratic reputation emerge and persist, such as a democratic transitioning period, the state will likely choose accommodation policy against separatist groups as a costly signal to the domestic as well as the international audience of its democratic commitment. To test this theory and probe the causal mechanism associated with it, the project uses an in-depth cross-case analysis of separatist conflicts in Aceh, Indonesia (1998-2005), Pattani, Thailand (1998-2006), and Bangsamoro, the Philippines (2001-2010). The paper employs Bayesian process-tracing to aggregate and analyze key evidence against several alternative hypotheses found in the literature. The paper finds that democratic reputation does play a role in the states' decision to accommodate or fight secessionist claims.

Author

• Yunizar Adiputera, University of Florida