The Logic of Provocative Propaganda in the Shadow of Democratic Uprisings

• In Event: Information Dissemination and Reliability in Authoritarian Regimes

Abstract

In contemporary autocracies where anti-authoritarian movements have gained momentum, a special form of state propaganda exists: political messages that blatantly taunt or mock the opposition. Such propaganda differs from everyday propaganda, and existing scholarship has yet to examine the political logic behind its widespread dissemination amid significant regime threats. I develop three mechanisms by which provocative propaganda benefits authoritarian survival. First is provoking the opposition: by enraging regime opponents, provocative propaganda escalates their radicalism in mass movements; due to the dissuasive effects of radicalized protests, successful collective action would then be made more difficult. Second is rallying existing supporters: by ridiculing regime opponents, provocative propaganda appeals to existing supporters; due to the strategic value of pro-government forces in anti-authoritarian movements, the opposition's strength would then be balanced out. Third is signaling regime strength: by challenging regime opponents, provocative propaganda demonstrates the autocrat's resolve to repress; due to the signaling function of heavy-handed propaganda, regime strength could then be conveyed to the public.

Deriving individual-level empirical implications from these mechanisms, I test the microfoundations using a well-powered survey experiment that exploits real-world propaganda in Hong Kong, where provocative propaganda was prevalent during the Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill movement. The pre-registered experiment, scheduled to be fielded in February 2023, will shed light on the psychological impact of provocative propaganda and will have theoretical implications for top-down polarization as a regime survival strategy.

Author

• Eddy Yeung, University of Oxford