Governmental Incompatibilities and Large-Scale Mobilization

• In Event: Limitations and Advances in Conflict Data

Abstract

In this paper we introduce a new dataset of all incompatibilities over government in a global sample of states from 1960-2020. We demonstrate variation in these intra-state disputes across time, regime-type, and region. We argue that incompatibilities over government are a necessary precursor to larger scale mobilization, such as insurgency or non-violent resistance campaigns, and explicitly model mobilization as a two-stage process: the emergence of an incompatibility and then subsequent violent or non-violent mobilization. We also examine how the length of incompatibilities affects both the incidence and success of higher levels of mobilization, arguing that a longer-running incompatibility may be indicative or a more established, better organized opposition. We find strong evidence that longer-running governmental incompatibilities are strongly associated with the emergence of larger-scale violent and non-violent mobilization, and in the case of non-violent mobilization, the success of the campaign in achieving the opposition’s political goals.

Authors

• Peter White, Auburn University

• David E. Cunningham, University of Maryland, College Park

• Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, University of Essex