Durable Persuasion by Responsible Policymaking: Public Support for Immigration

• In Event: Understanding Support for Immigration in Western Europe

Abstract

Research shows that voters accept more open immigration policies when they believe these policies are economically beneficial to their country. At the same time, voters tend to underestimate the positive effects of existing immigration policies. Although various attempts to improve immigration attitudes by correcting these misperceptions have generally not been successful, this paper explores the alternative possibility of durable persuasion by responsible policymaking in line with voters' conditional preference for selective immigration. Using a new cross-sectional time series dataset linking the best available public opinion and policy data over the last 40 years in 24 European countries, I show that voter perceptions of immigration’s economic benefits are systematically related to the objective reality, including the past skill selectivity of immigration policies and the shares of high-skilled immigrants. I then show that pro-work and pro-skill (but not other pro-immigration) policy changes are associated with greater public support for immigration in general within countries (including family and humanitarian immigration). Finally, I illustrate this dynamic by comparing the historical evolution of immigration policy selectivity, politics, and public opinion in Canada, the UK, and Sweden. Overall, the evidence suggests that, while providing accurate information to voters is essential, only selective pro-immigration reforms can secure and sustain public support for consistently high immigration rates.

Author

• Alexander Kustov, University of North Carolina at Charlotte