What Reassures in Military Alliances? Identifying Sender-Receiver Gaps

• In Event: Forward Deployment, Coercive Diplomacy, and Conflict

Abstract

Reassurance is central to military alliances, and a growing body of literature studies which forms of reassurance are most effective and under what conditions. But are findings about what reassures consistent with what policymakers in sending countries believe reassures? We address this question by comparing the findings from an original survey of foreign policy elites in Northeastern Europe with data from the Teaching, Research, and International Policy survey of foreign policy elites in the United States. These data allow us to determine whether elites in Europe and the United States agree on the reassurance value of a variety of measures, including small “tripwire” forces, large combat-ready deployments, and capable but low-footprint deployments like offshore naval forces. The findings contribute to the literature on interstate signaling and alliance politics by not only showing which signals are most effective, but also by offering scholars an understanding of whether there are sender-receiver gaps and why. The findings will also offer policymakers the opportunity to understand and correct gaps in how American and allied officials perceive what reassures.

Authors

• Brian Blankenship, University of Miami

• Erik Lin-Greenberg, Massachusetts Institute of Technology