Extended Deterrence, Military Casualties, and Public Support for War

• In Event: Forward Deployment, Coercive Diplomacy, and Conflict

Abstract

How do casualties shape public support for wars to defend other countries? Existing scholarship offers contrasting answers. One perspective suggests that casualties generally reduce public support for war by raising public expectations of military costs. An alternative view argues that casualties inflame public opinion and increase support for war. To reconcile these contrasting views, we employ a survey experiment with 3,200 U.S. respondents. The experiment yields three main findings. First, casualties in extended deterrence deployments consistently increase public support for military interventions to defend other countries. Second, larger numbers of casualties magnify this effect. Third, casualties increase support for more severe non-military responses, but not stronger military measures such as the use of nuclear weapons. The findings suggest that how casualties impact public support for war depends on whether the United States is responsible for the initial intervention.

Authors

• Joshua Alley, University College Dublin

• Todd S. Sechser, University of Virginia