Mexico's Double Transition: The Politics of Fossil Fuels and Democratization

• In Event: Comparative Politics and the Energy Transition

Abstract

How will the global transition away from fossil fuels affect politics in oil and gas dependent countries? We examine the case of Mexico, one of the world’s earliest oil exporting countries, using novel micro-level data on oil production and voting behavior. Our focus is the period since 1997, when Mexico’s transition to democratic rule made elections more competitive. We find that when local hydrocarbon wells passed their production peak, voters became less supportive of the ruling PRI party and more supportive of the transition to democracy. At the same time, they increasingly voted for populist leaders with pro-fossil fuel political agendas. We also explore two possible mechanisms to explain these outcomes: an employment effect and an economic diversification effect. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results for Mexican politics, and for energy transitions in oil-dependent states more broadly.

Author

• Michael L. Ross, University of California, Los Angeles