The Effect of Airstrikes on Activities of Peacekeepers and Al Shabaab in Somalia

• In Event: How to Keep Peace

Abstract

There is a growing interest in the scholarly community as well as within the public on the effects of air and drone strikes in conflict contexts, and the debate on their utility and ethics continues. Studies so far measured their effectiveness with the available conflict event data, focusing on whether aerial strikes lead to a decrease in insurgent violence. The intended purpose of aerial strikes is to support the troops on the ground and help to achieve their objectives, by securing their vicinities and pushing insurgents out of the area of interest. To evaluate their effects on the ground, we utilize novel datasets from the African Union (AU) peacekeeping forces on the operational movements of the peacekeepers, and the presence of Al Shabaab (AS) militants and activities in the context of Somalia for the year 2018. Results show that an aerial strike may help increase AU offensive operations through the following month. However, AS militants immediately re-emerge in the areas of the strikes, after a brief interlude. We argue that this is because of the insurgent group’s willingness to take risks and suffer costs due to the value given to holding ground. Results suggest that while aerial strikes may be effective in counter-insurgent operations, they may not be as effective as thought for defeating insurgents in the long term.

Authors

• Prabin Khadka, University of Essex

• Mehmet Erdem Arslan, Gendarmerie and Coast Guard Academy, Turkiye