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Rebel Governance and the Transformation of Rebel Groups to Political Parties

Fri, September 1, 8:00 to 9:30am PDT (8:00 to 9:30am PDT), Virtual, Virtual 6

Abstract

By creating wartime order and governance, rebel groups aim to legitimate their claims, induce civilian support, and exploit resources. Not all types of rebel governance, however, are created equal. Some rebel groups allow civilian participation in their governance during the war, whereas some have highly hierarchical structures strictly limiting civilian participation. How do the governance activities of rebel groups and participatory arrangements of rebel governance during war influence the transformation of rebel groups into political parties? In this article, I argue that war-time rebel governance helps former rebels form political parties after conflict ends and perform as viable political actors by increasing public support and organizational skills of rebel groups. Despite the general effect of rebel governance on rebel-to-party transformation, “participatory” governance practices and institutions are particularly effective in the electoral performance of formal rebel parties than non-participatory governance since they work toward obtaining voluntary public support. Using rebel governance data and rebel party performance data between 1945 and 2012, I find strong empirical support for my argument. I then demonstrate the plausibility of the causal mechanism in the case of Indonesia and the Philippines civil war. By establishing a strong positive empirical relationship between rebel wartime governance and the rebel party transformation, this paper identifies another important effect of rebel governance on conflict processes and outcomes in addition to its demonstrated effect on negotiations between warring parties and post-war democratization. Moreover, analyzing the different types of rebel governance helps us understand the complex aspects of governance and provide different implications for the peace process.

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