The Electoral Politics of Immigration and Crime

• In Event: Anti-immigrant Sentiment, Xenophobia, and Nativism

Abstract

Worries that immigration worsens crime problems is prevalent across Western publics. How does it shape vote choice? Building on scholarship on immigration threat (Lahav & Courtemanche, 2012; Homola, 2020), I argue that compared to cultural and economic immigration concern, differences between left-wing and right-wing voters are small on the dimension of crime. High concern about immigrant crime among left-wing voters -- including those with high educational attainment and those living in cities -- coupled with left-wing parties' lack of law-and-order positions creates a voter-party mismatch that can lead to electoral shifts benefiting right-wing parties.

Using survey data from 14 Western European countries linked with expert ratings of party positions, I first empirically confirm the voter-party mismatch on the Left, especially among Green and radical-left parties. Drawing on a panel survey from Germany, I further show that concern about immigration and crime increases vote intention for the center-right among respondents who voted for the Greens in the previous election. Exploring mechanisms, I present evidence consistent with the idea of a voter-party mismatch: On average, Green party voters perceive the center-right to better represent their views on crime than their own party. Finally, using data from the Facebook ad library, I demonstrate that the center-right in Germany is more likely to post electoral ads about (immigrant) crime in urban areas, where progressive left-wing voters tend to reside.

I conclude that a more complete understanding of how immigration shapes electoral politics must incorporate crime as an important dimension. More specifically, this paper shows that when different dimensions of immigration threat are considered, there is substantial variation in the divide between left-wing and right-wing voters. Particularly among progressive urban voters, concern about immigration varies considerably across dimensions, being low on culture and the economy and high on crime. In addition, the results of this paper suggest that the issue of immigration and crime may present muted electoral trade-offs to mainstream right parties and allow them to make inroads among progressive voters while holding on to their own voter base. The findings of this paper also contribute to the literature on Green parties' electoral fortunes across Europe. As these parties attempt to expand their electorate, they may need to engage with issues such as immigration and crime, which may be uncomfortable to them from an ideological standpoint and have the potential to create internal rifts.

Author

• Jeyhun Alizade, WZB Berlin Social Science Center