Audience Costs and the Credibility of Public versus Public Threats

• In Event: Resolve, Threats, Blame, and Audience Costs

Abstract

The credibility of public versus private threats in international crisis bargaining has received scholarly attention. While public threats are often believed to be more credible than private ones because of audience costs, others contend that private threats should be equally credible or even more. Also, the effect of public threats can be conditioned by other domestic factors such as hawkishness and a leader's unpopularity. To test these competing expectations, I conducted a conjoint survey experiment that examines how observers assess resolve to fight in an international crisis with a sample of U.S. citizens (N=1200). Two major findings stand out. First, while both public and private threats work as a costly signal, the difference between public and private threats is negligible. Second, I find no support for the conditional effect of public threats, suggesting that the sources of the credibility of public or private threats are not domestic audience costs.

Author

• Makito Takei, Tecnologico de Monterrey