Self-Enforcing Power Dynamics

• In Event: Power Politics in Authoritarian Regimes

Abstract

This paper presents a model of self-enforcing power dynamics between a "ruler" and an "opponent," in which the power of one side is defined by the probability to defeat the other side in a conflict. The ruler decides how the spoils of ruling are distributed and the opponent sometimes is able to start a conflict against the ruler. When the opponent fails to pose a threat, the ruler may take steps to increase power. The ability of the opponent to find opportunities to start a conflict evolves over time depending on the current power of the ruler. The question is whether in equilibrium the ruler would share power with the opponent, refraining from further increasing power after gaining a satisfactory level and whether would the ruler rule peacefully, when, and why (not).

Author

• Zhaotian Luo, University of Chicago