Throwing Out Bums, Bunglers, and Bandits: Recall Elections in Local Politics

• In Event: Election-Related Challenges to Democracy in the U.S.

Abstract

We differentiate several motivations behind recall elections in local politics. One is scandal involving individual politicians; a second is tit-for-tat retaliation between blocks of voters; and a third is policy malperformance within a jurisdiction. Using California local election data for 1996-2021, we examine the frequency of these types of recall motivations and the likelihood recall elections lead to the removal of incumbents within counties and municipalities. Combined with Census, ACS, FBI Uniform Crime Reports, and property valuation data, we test hypotheses about the conditions under which tit-for-tat retaliation and/or policy malperformance lead to recall attempts and successful recalls.

Authors

• Ken Bickers, University of Colorado, Boulder

• Lapo Salucci, University of Denver