Perils of Victory: Governance and Political Stability in Malaysia from 2018

• In Event: Varieties and Challenges in Political Participation in an Age of Misinformation

Abstract

What happens after opposition parties and alliances defeat a dictator at the polls? The existing political science literature is divided on this question. While some scholars predict far-reaching changes in economic redistribution and the political balance of power, others are more sanguine about the prospects of drastic socio-political transformation. This paper investigates the trajectory of governance outcomes, institutional reforms, and political stability on a historic case in Southeast Asia – Malaysia from 2018 to 2022 after the defeat of long-dominant autocratic Barisan Nasional ruling coalition. During that period, initial eagerness for liberalizing reforms was quickly extinguished by a wave of conservative counter-mobilization from the defeated incumbents. Political stability was also upended by internal splits within the new governing coalition, resulting in three Prime Ministers in four years. I use the secondary literature, newspaper reports, archival materials, and semi-structured interviews with political elites to triangulate the dilemmas of political leaders after victory, and consider why socio-political change after electoral defeat of a dictator is so difficult. Brief comparisons will be made with other similar historical East Asian cases where countries experienced their first electoral turnover after an extended period of autocratic, conservative party rule. This paper contributes to a growing literature on the post-electoral transitional difficulties encountered by a newly elected government after significant periods of authoritarianism.

Author

• Jiayun Elvin Ong, National University of Singapore