Marriage Equality in the World in 2050

• In Event: Poster Session: LGBTQI+ Power and Politics & Human Rights
  In Poster Session: Celebrating Fifty Years of Queer Scholarship at APSA Mini-Conference: Poster Session: LGBTQI+ Power and Politics

Abstract

In 2001, the Netherlands became the first country to extend the legal right to marriage to same-sex couples. By the 2020s, the number of nation-states recognizing same-sex marriage had grown to more than thirty, an average increase of 1.5 states legalizing per year. Trying to predict the future can help us to understand the past. This paper analyses data to investigate the question: how many countries in the world will have marriage equality (ME) in the year 2050?
There are three broad possibilities. Hypothetical scenario A is a surge scenario, whereby the number of ME states will accelerate over time. This is a common development according to the diffusion of innovations literature, once the early-adopter phase is passed. Scenario C is a plateau scenario, whereby all the low-hanging fruit has already been picked, and most countries that will ever legalize ME already have done so. In the middle is scenario B, the incremental scenario, whereby a slow progress of legalization at a rate of one or two countries per year is the most likely path forward.
A meta-analysis has been conducted of research explaining national cases of same-sex marriage adoption. This data is then compared to a global regression analysis of key variables across all nation-states. National measures of democracy, geography, wealth, religion, cultural values, ideology, and public opinion are all factors that make a plausible claim to explaining ME adoption and non-adoption.
For example, the fates of democracy and ME are closely tied. Using Economist Democracy Index categories, 87 per cent of full democracies have enacted marriage equality (consisting of 20 countries), compared to 23 per cent of flawed democracies (12 countries), and 2 percent of authoritarian regimes (just one country, Cuba). World Values Survey data illustrates the significance of differences in cultural values. Among countries where survival/materialist values predominate, almost none have ME (3 out of 63 countries surveyed), but where self-expression/postmaterialist values prevail, two-thirds of countries have ME laws (30 out of 46 surveyed). National wealth also closely correlates with marriage equality status. Among countries with under US$5,000 annual GDP per capita, none have enacted ME (0 out of 89), compared to 13 per cent of countries with GDP per capita between $5,000 and $10,000 (5 of 36), 18 per cent of countries between $10,000 and $25,000 (6 of 32), and 59 per cent of countries with GDP per capita over $25,000 (23 of 39). The overlapping array of relevant independent variables merits careful unpacking.
This paper concludes that the evidence does not support either a surge or plateau scenario. The global diffusion of marriage equality laws is unlikely to stall, but it is also unlikely to speed up significantly. The global abolition of slavery in modern times was a political process that slowly unfolded over more than two centuries, and the global implementation of voting rights for women occurred over more than a century of debate and activism. The global adoption of marriage equality by nation-states in the 21st century has made a strong start, but future progress is not inevitable. To double the number of ME states by 2050 will require continuing country-specific advocacy and incremental efforts to grow public and political support for law reform.

Author

• Brent S Commerer, University of Waikato