Institutional Legacies of Rebel Governance

• In Event: Enduring Effects of Rebel Governance

Abstract

Ex-rebel parties govern almost a quarter of sub-Saharan Africa today. How does war affect these countries' long-run political development, and what explains their ruling parties' longevity? I theorize about the role of coercion in wartime social control and rebel governance: post-war governance draws from wartime strategies, leading to path dependence in (1) the use of organized coercion in politics, and (2) where such coercion is most effectively employed to ensure support. I examine Zimbabwe where the anti-colonial rebel party, ZANU-PF, has remained in power since winning control in 1980. Using archival data, I map pre-war to current-day administrative divisions and code a novel measure of wartime governance. I combine these data with current-day Afrobarometer surveys to demonstrate long-run subnational variation in coercive political control. The theory and findings deepen our understanding of war’s effects on peacetime politics, explaining the lack of political turnover despite regular elections in many post-conflict states.

Author

• Shelley Liu, Duke University