The Impact of War on Movements towards and Away from Democracy

• In Event: The Consequences of Contention

Abstract

How does armed conflict influence the development of democratic institutions? Whereas a large body of literature has examined how democratic institutions shape the risk of armed conflict, the institutional legacies of armed conflict on a country’s democratization trajectory remain far less studied and little understood. Addressing this gap in the literature, we take our theoretical point of departure in the comparative democratization literature that emphasize how social class struggles shape the prospect for democratic transition and subsequent development of democratic institutions. We theorize explicitly how violent contestation shapes the bargaining over the institutional framework that allocate power in society, and in turn, movements towards and away from democracy. We expect armed conflict to have heterogeneous effects, prompting the expansion of certain democratic rights and institutions, but restraining others. In contrast to most previous studies that rely on aggregate indicators of democracy, we use disaggregated data on various aspects of democratic institutions and examine the impact of armed conflict on each, with data going back to 1789 and onwards.

Authors

• Hanne Fjelde, Uppsala University

• Carl Henrik Knutsen, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo

• David Randahl, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

• Jan Rustemeyer