Has the Electoral College Grown More Disproportional? Election Results 1876-2020

• In Event: Disproportionality, Inequality, and the Structure of Electoral Systems

Abstract

Especially following the 2000 and the 2016 presidential elections, some authors have denounced the legitimacy of the Electoral College as a presidential selection method. It is alleged that the college is not representative of the electorate as a whole and tends to favor one specific political party. In this note we compare the popular vote with the composition of the Electoral College for every presidential contest since 18761900 (n= 371 elections). We confirm that the college is indeed disproportional, as it provides a major bonus to the winning candidate. While this disproportionally has become slightly stronger during the 1876900-2020 period, it does not specifically benefit one political party. Measured at the level of the states, there is no substantial increase in inequality with regard to geographic representation. However, to the extent that electoral races become tighter, as was the case in the last quarter of the 19th century, the risk that results fall within an accepted margin of statistical error becomes larger. This suggests that the current controversy finds its source less in the electoral rules and more in the situational and highly competitive balance of party competition.

Authors

• Marc Hooghe, University Leuven

• Dieter Stiers, KU Leuven

• Michael S. Lewis-Beck, University of Iowa