Images of Taiwan and Diplomatic Recognition of China

• In Event: Political Communications and International Relations in the Digital Era

Abstract

Perhaps the most consequential shift in international politics today is the rise of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and its increasingly aggressive foreign policy approach. This approach is referred to as “wolf warrior diplomacy,”a term referring to a new, aggressive form of diplomacy combining economic coercion and confrontational engagement with critics (Martin 2021, 3). The PRC under Xi is wielding its power in an attempt to impose its will on the world, reshaping international norms and institutions with “Chinese characteristics” in order to remake the international order in a manner more accommodating to the PRC’s interests (Beeson 2018; Dukalskis 2021; Kaplan 2018). One of the focal points for this aggressive diplomatic approach has been the campaign to diplomatically isolate Taiwan by pressuring countries that recognise the Republic of China (ROC – Taiwan) as the legitimate seat of power in China rather than the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

Diplomatic recognition is a fundamental element enabling full participation in the international system and its various entities of coordination. However, Xi has made the unification of Taiwan and the PRC “a historic mission and an unshakable commitment” signaling that “no one should underestimate the resolve, the will, and the ability” of the PRC to defend their claims of sovereignty over Taiwan (Xi 2021). At the 2022 Party Congress, Xi reiterated, “Taiwan is China’s Taiwan” and that, although they seek peaceful unification, he will “reserve the option of taking all means necessary” to achieve unification (Xi 2022). Currently, 14 countries grant full diplomatic recognition to the ROC. In 2019 both Solomon Islands and Kiribati switched their diplomatic recognition of China from the ROC to the PRC. In 2018 the Dominican Republic and El Salvador switched their diplomatic recognition from the ROC to the PRC and Panama had done the same in 2017. With the diplomatic changes often came significant PRC investment and aid (Shattuck 2020; Tha 2021). The pressure appears to have increased in recent years, provoked by the electoral victory of the Democratic People’s Party (DPP) in the presidential elections in 2016 and 2020 as the DPP is less open to building ties between the PRC and Taiwan. With fewer diplomatic allies, the PRC will be in a better position to bring pressure on Taiwan to force unification.

This research seeks to understand the domestic political effects of diplomatic recognition on press reporting about Taiwan in these countries. Specifically it addresses the following research questions:

RQ1a: Do countries that recognize the ROC rather than the PRC have reporting that is more favorable to the ROC than the PRC, on average in the domestic news?

RQ1b: Do countries that recognize the ROC rather than the PRC have reporting that is more negative towards the PRC than the ROC, on average in the domestic news?

RQ2a: When countries change their diplomatic recognition from the ROC to the PRC, does the tone of reporting in domestic news towards the ROC become more negative?

RQ3: If there is a shift in the tone of domestic reporting about the PRC or ROC, what topics are most highly correlated with this shift in reporting?

RQ4: Does the tone of domestic PRC and ROC news reporting about countries that have switched their diplomatic recognition change in response?

RQ5: Is there evidence of overt or covert influence operations directed at target countries in the period before a country shifted its diplomatic recognition from the ROC to the PRC?

This research extends on Easton’s (1965) account of systems analysis drawing on his concept of orientation issues. It studies how media content seeks to orient audiences in relation to Taiwan. The project uses the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone’s ( GDELT) Global Knowledge Graph data (English and translated databases) to capture all news reporting mentioning the ROC. GDELT is the largest publicly available dataset of online news. This dataset includes measures of article tone for online news and it can be segmented by country of origin. The data extends from 2015 through the present. Articles will be filtered during thing time to assess changes in news reporting tone about the ROC. In addition, evidence of covert and overt influence can be assessed from known propaganda sources deployed by the PRC and the underlying source material outlets link to.

The research produces two theoretical contributions. First, it assesses the role of domestic and foreign propaganda in creating the preconditions for significant diplomatic shifts. Second, it shows the role that diplomatic changes can have in shifting the information domain of domestic and international politics.

Author

• Michael J. Jensen, University of Canberra