Downward Social Mobility, Voting, and Democracy

• In Event: Voting for Extremism

Abstract

How does social mobility affect voting behavior in democracy? While a large literature relates economic inequality to democratic consolidation, there has been surprisingly little work on social mobility. This paper investigates one possible channel connecting downward mobility to democratic erosion: the election of populist or extremist political parties. We argue that individuals experiencing downward social mobility are more likely to vote for such parties and propose two mechanisms that could drive the relationship. First, downward mobility generates discontent with democratic institutions, which decreases support for traditional parties and candidates. Second, downward mobility transforms values in a way that is harmful to democracy. Individuals that experience downward mobility become less likely to believe in personal autonomy and responsibility, less trustful, and less supportive of individual liberties, increasing their support for undemocratic parties. Using a novel dataset combining survey data from more than 50 democracies, we test the effect of social mobility on voting behavior. We find that individuals that experience downward mobility are more likely to vote for right-wing populist parties, but there is little effect on support for left-wing populism. We also find evidence consistent with both mechanisms. By focusing on the parties most likely to threaten democracy once in power, our findings have important implications for the spread of democratic erosion and the future of global democracy. 

Authors

• Michael K. Miller, George Washington University

• Christian Houle, Michigan State University