Does Elite Ideological Polarization Cause Mass Affective Polarization?

• In Event: Causes of Polarization and Potential Paths to Transcend It

Abstract

Does elite polarization increase affective polarization? I study this question with a real-world a sudden increase in elite polarization in the United Kingdom when the Labour Party suddenly adopted a more extreme ideological stance in 2015. Using British Election Study Internet Panel data, I find that higher ideological elite polarization leads to higher affective polarization. Moreover, the effect of elite polarization is not only limited to in-partisans (i.e., Labour identifiers) but it also extends to out-partisans (i.e., Conservative identifiers). Importantly, in-party feelings drive the increase in affective polarization more than out-party feelings. Affective polarization is not necessarily a reflection of out-party animosity but can fluctuate due to changes in in-party enthusiasm, which cautions against a bipolar conceptualization of in- and out-party feelings. Lastly, I show that the causal direction between how citizens perceive elite ideological polarization and how affectively polarized they are is bidirectional, which means that affective polarization is rooted both in identity and policy. While some levels of affective polarization are inherent in democracies, affective polarization can, to a certain extent, be tamed by moderate position-taking by parties.

Author

• Semih Cakir, University of Vienna