Climate Attribution, Beliefs, & Actions: Wildfires in the American West

• In Event: Shaping Climate Change Beliefs: Messaging and Measurement

Abstract

How does messaging about attribution of extreme weather events to different causes shape political behavior and public opinion? The severity and frequency of extreme weather events has increased significantly in recent years, and politicians and elites blame many different actors for the devastating impacts of these events. Wildfires have especially complex attribution patterns: individuals may blame climate change, the government, and/or communities/individuals for increased fire risks, among other causes. We identify the effects of actual and self-reported wildfire exposure and the attribution of wildfires to different causes on behaviors and attitudes. With an incentivized survey experiment, we evaluate the impact of randomly assigned attribution frames (climate change, government ineptitude, victims’ lack of preparedness) on contributions to wildfire relief, policy spending preferences (mitigation vs. adaptation vs. relief), and perceived effectiveness of different actors in responding to climate change. The online survey took place during November 2021-January 2022 and targeted respondents in states with high wildfire exposure in the American West (CA, OR, WA, NV, AZ, CO). We find that experiencing wildfires increases in belief about climate change and attribution of events to climate change for Republicans, closing partisan gaps. Our attribution treatments do not change beliefs in the general sample, but the climate change frame reduces mitigation support and increases relief support among those without pre-existing opinions about the causes of extreme events. Our findings shed light on the interaction of climate change attribution and extreme weather exposure for political behavior and public opinion.

Authors

• Alicia Dailey Cooperman, George Washington University

• Sara Constantino, Northeastern University

• Alexander Sayer Gard-Murray, Brown University

• Talbot M Andrews, Cornell University