Backlash against the U.S.: Evidence from WWII in Italy

• In Event: Poster Session: Politics of Post-Communist Countries & Politics and History
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Politics and History

Abstract

Extant research uncovered that fascist repression during WWII boosted communist parties' popularity in Europe. Yet, we know little about the consequences of the Allied powers' violence. While military casualties can be associated with conflict dynamics, we propose that the Allies' aerial strikes over civilian populations may have pivoted post-war political identities. Social identity theory would predict such relatively indiscriminate episodes of violence to trigger an anti-perpetrator bias that may transcend to conflict sides. We test this argument by delving into the consequences of WWII in Italy, where the Allies bombed one-fifth of Italian municipalities, with 75% of these aerial strikes being executed by the US Army. We resource data providing the location of Allies' strikes to use a difference-in-differences design that compares communist parties' vote shares in municipalities that received US aerial strikes to those which did not experience such a type of violence before and after the conflict. Results suggest that American strikes increased support for the Italian Communist Party in elections held after WWII. Such an increase is particularly notable when looking at strikes that likely affected civilians instead of purely military targets. These findings relate American operations in the context of the European theatre of WWII to the political dynamics of the Cold War in this region.

Authors

• Sergi Martinez, European University Institute

• Giacomo Lemoli, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse