Affective Polarization and Negative Voting in Italian Elections

• In Event: Identity, Elections, and Contemporary Italian Politics

Abstract

Since the early 2010s, a substantial number of studies have taken a novel approach to party polarization that concentrates on partisan feelings. This concept is referred to as affective polarization, defined by the extent to which voters have positive sentiments for their own party, while holding negative ones towards competing out-party/parties. Although the topic has mostly been studied in the USA, recent evidence has shown that affective polarization is also present in parliamentary and multiparty systems, sometimes to an even greater extent than in two-party and presidential systems.
In this paper, I will present novel longitudinal evidence on affective polarization in Italy. I will do so by making use of the ITANES time series (1968-2022). I will also provide insights into the electoral consequences of affective polarization through the lens of negative voting – defined as an electoral choice more strongly driven by negative attitudes toward the opposition than by positive attitudes toward one’s own choice. To this purpose, I will rely on the negative voting mini-module that has been included in the ITANES post-election questionnaire of 2022.

Authors

• Diego Garzia, University of Lausanne

• Frederico Ferreira da Silva, University of Lausanne

• Chiara Vargiu, Univertiy of Lausanne, Institute of Political Studies