Electoral Realignment in Response to Female Lead Candidates

• In Event: Social Cleavages, Realignment and Belief Systems

Abstract

While most established democracies still fall short of gender parity in the distribution of parliamentary seats or ministerial posts, women have become increasingly visible and influential in party politics over the past 50 years. In this paper, we focus on the electoral effects of the feminization of party leadership by studying electoral realignment in response to the selection of women as party leaders and lead candidates. We argue that parties’ choice of personnel from structurally underrepresented groups unfolds via two avenues: First, as a signal of inclusion and social progressivism, it may broaden parties’ appeal to liberal voters; secondly, by group-specific descriptive representation, it allows parties’ to appeal to, and eventually mobilize, voters from the same demographic groups. We test the dynamic electoral effects of the selection of female lead personnel as well as the proposed theoretical mechanisms using three empirical approaches: Changes in parties’ vote shares, general and gender-specific patterns of vote switching in comparative perspective, and a series of quasi-experimental case studies using multi-wave pre-election surveys. By producing new and nuanced insights on the electoral effects of parties’ choice of their lead personnel, our findings have notable implications at the intersection of party politics, party competition, and representation.

Authors

• Werner Krause, University of Potsdam

• Denis Cohen, University of Mannheim