An Agent-Based Model of Democratic Backsliding

• In Event: Innovative Approaches to Studying Democratic Backsliding and Resilience

Abstract

Patterns of democratization and autocratization have been carefully studied through large cross-national datasets. However, the causal processes and sequencing of key events and actors remains difficult to establish due to the endogeneity of political actors and institutions, as we expect the capacity, democratic commitment, and ideology of such entities are also significantly influenced by one another. This paper presents an Agent-Based Model to better understand democratic breakdown sequencing and account for endogeneity. A hypothetical model of different actors, including political parties and institutions, is developed and rules guiding their interactions are introduced to see how autocratic innovators use institutions to reduce democratic freedoms. The rules of engagement and effects are based on theory and checked and calibrated using past V-Dem data to ground the model in reality. The analysis draws attention to the protective role of institutions against backsliding in certain situations, but also their weaponization when captured by autocratic leaders.

Authors

• Paul Friesen, Cornell University

• Andrew Hocking, Hocking Services, LLC