The Effect of Clerical Endorsement on Voting: Evidence from the Philippines

• In Event: Religion and Democracy: Backsliding and Resilience

Abstract

Under what conditions can clergy influence voting behavior when they speak out to challenge democratic backsliding? And when clergy take action, why are such endorsements or admonitions effective? We evaluate the question through the 2022 Philippine presidential election, which primarily pitted Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, against the reformist Leni Robredo. Somewhat uniquely, this election featured direct partisan activism from a number of Catholic clergy, who formally organized in a pro-Robredo umbrella group called “Clergy for the Moral Choice.” Drawing on a list of this group’s membership, we develop a mixed-method design to test the operation of potential clergy influence. First, we couple precinct-level voting data with parish maps delineating the boundaries of clergy active in this organization to examine the conditions under which direct clerical activism influences election results. Second, to evaluate potential channels of influence, we perform a focused content analysis of the Facebook pages of both mobilized and un-mobilized clergy in the weeks before the election, including sermons, Facebook posts, and subsequent reactions and discussions.

Authors

• David T. Buckley, University of Louisville

• Steven Brooke, University of Wisconsin- Madison