Tracing the Origins of Conspiracy Belief during the COVID-19 Pandemic

• In Event: Political Communication and COVID Beliefs

Abstract

This paper examines the role of threat perceptions and media use in relation to citizens' susceptibility to disinformation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using multi-wave panel data collected by the Austrian Corona Panel Project (ACPP) over a two-year period from April 2020 to March 2022, we found a substantial amount of transitions in and out of conspiracy belief at the individual level. We modelled those transitions through a Mixture Markov Chain Model (MMCM) and identified two distinct clusters in the population: one more stable and the other more volatile. Our findings suggest that economic threats are associated with transitions into conspiracy belief among the more volatile group. Additionally, news on public broadcasters immunized the public against disinformation, while commercial news media and social media had the opposite effect. We conclude by discussing the theoretical and practical implications of these findings.

Author

• Julia Partheymüller, University of Vienna