Ally or Non-ally? A Tri-pronged Choice for Clients of Nuclear Alliances

• In Event: Alliance Politics

Abstract

Do non-nuclear client states under an alliance with a nuclear-capable patron state show a higher likelihood of continuing to remain within their alliances, creating an option for future weaponization–hedging, or exiting the alliance via defection, neutrality, or active weaponization? If so, how–under what conditions do these client states make their choices? In the larger picture, it is puzzling why some states centering even global hotspots have opted to remain allied for decades with complete faith in another state for their protection, while others have pursued different options, and if the trend now is to independently weaponize, will it render nuclear alliances aimed at nuclear nonproliferation redundant? But if that’s the case, why do several nuclear security alliances involving key international actors still exist with no explicit intentions from the client states of leaving their alliances and if at all only strengthening the relations with their patrons?

I theoretically expect that, in the first stage, if the clients of nuclear security umbrella alliances conduct a re-assessment of risks and opportunities of their defense and security policies, they are likely to move forward to the second stage. In the second stage, on the continuum of allegiance to non-allegiance towards the nuclear security alliances, the client states are likely to be posed with the question–of whether to remain totally allegiant, hedge or exit the alliance. I argue that a client state’s strategic decision at this stage is tri-pronged– maneuvered by three main dimensions – a) client state’s posture, b) attributes of the guarantee and c) patron state’s posture. I quantitatively measure the three dimensions utilizing determinants/indicators found within the existing scholarship and map the transitions of allied client states from one strategy to another during the period between 1945-2022, creating and original universal dataset. The period is chosen with the aim of testing a more homogenous population of cases based on the global political landscape to maximize the comparability and relevance to the contemporary context. I then test the hypotheses derived from the theory on this data. Utilizing an event history analysis, I assess under what conditions the client states are most likely to opt for the different strategies. This research aims at making an original theoretical and data contribution to existing literature, alongside an effort to address the larger policy questions such as the trends in nuclear security alliances and how this would alter the global proliferation landscape. Particularly, the research aims to bring forth policy implications on client states who would opt to re-strategize their security and defense policies and to shed light on the viability of alliances as a mechanism of nonproliferation and arms control.

Keywords: nuclear umbrella alliances, non-nuclear client states, nuclear-capable patron states, total allegiance, hedging, non-allegiance

Author

• Hasini Ransala Liyanage, University of Oslo, Norway