Historical Identity and Interstate Conflict: Evidence from Russia and Ukraine

• In Event: Memory, Religion, and Conspiracy: The Politics of Narrative in East Europe

Abstract

What are the effects of a shared historical identity on attitudes towards interstate conflict? Does it matter if the shared identity is constructed along an ethnic dimension or a political dimension? On the one hand, priming a shared identity between belligerents can foster concerns about wellbeing and thus lower support for the conflict in question. On the other hand, shared identity primes may rekindle historically rooted ideas that justify belligerence.

To examine these questions and predictions, we conduct two original survey experiments – one in Ukraine, the other in Russia. We investigate whether shared (a) pan-Slavic or (b) Soviet identities shape attitudes towards the Russo-Ukrainian War. Fielding the survey in both Russia and Ukraine allows us to examine differential effects of shared identity primes between the aggressor and the target of aggression. This analysis has important implications for how leaders can use historical, constructed identities to justify war to domestic audiences.

Author

• Roman Hlatky, University of North Texas