Holding the Constituency: Incumbency Advantage in OLPR

• In Event: Electoral Laws and the (In)equality of Democratic Representation

Abstract

Only a few studies have examined incumbency advantages in proportional representation (PR) elections and their results are still inconclusive. Given that these systems are based on multimember districts, incumbents under PR elections face a competitive environment drastically different from the one observed in single-member district elections. This raises the question of whether incumbents can sustain a "personal" constituency over consecutive elections. In this paper, we use a new dataset that combines information from three national- and state-level legislative elections in Brazil (2010, 2014, and 2018) to implement an empirical strategy that (i) identifies candidates' geographical hotspots (electoral base) at the level of polling stations and, with this information, (ii) investigates whether these candidates are successful in maintaining and expanding their electoral base in successive elections. Taking advantage of the fact that PR systems with open lists allocate seats differentially to candidates with identical electoral performances, we can estimate the effect of incumbency across treated (elected) and nontreated (nonelected) groups that are similar in their previous electoral support. Our preliminary findings show that incumbents are more likely to retain their electoral bases over successive elections.

Authors

• Thiago M. Q. Moreira, Louisiana State University

• Jose Antonio Cheibub, University of Pittsburgh

• Andrea Junqueira, Arkansas State University