Deep Roots: On the Persistence of American Populism

• In Event: Political Preferences in Historical Context

Abstract

Does American populism persist? In dialogue with the literature on populism and historical persistence, this article argues that contemporary American populism has deep roots. Using votes for the populist candidates in U.S. Congressional House elections from the 1890s, we show that counties experiencing support for populism in the late 19th century predict support for Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020. Our analysis suggests that historical populist voting in House elections also predicts Republican presidential vote shares since 2000. This article offers a new historical account of contemporary American populism and shows that historical causes can have persistent effects.

Authors

• Ze Han, Princeton University

• Helen V. Milner, Princeton University

• Kris Mitchener, Santa Clara University