The Boundaries of Elite Cues over Time: Support for Ukraine Funding (2022-2023)

• In Event: Elite Cues, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy

Abstract

The paper extends our prior work on when and how informational or partisan components of
elite cues shape mass attitudes about international politics. Previously we examined multiple
international issues at one moment in time; here we study two related issues—military and
economic support for Ukraine, and support for expanding NATO—at multiple points in time. In
the US context, we expect treatment effects to change as elite discourse on the issue polarizes,
especially following the 2022 midterm elections. We report findings from a repeated survey
experiment with two questions, one about support for Ukraine and the other about expanding
NATO to include Finland and Sweden, repeated at several points in 2022 and 2023. We also
track elite polarization through news coverage. When elite opinion is less polarized, baseline
public opinion should also be less polarized, and we expect any cue (generic or partisan) to shift
public attitudes. As elite opinion and thus public opinion becomes more polarized, only cues
from the elites that share the respondent’s party will move attitudes in the direction of the cue.

Authors

• Alexandra Guisinger, Temple University

• Elizabeth Nathan Saunders, Columbia University