International Rivalry, Military Intervention, and Duration of Civil War

• In Event: Poster Session: International Security 2

Abstract

Does military intervention extend the duration of civil war? To answer this question, extant studies have focused on the impact of one-sided vs. two-sided interventions on conflict duration, and their results are mixed. We attribute these inconsistent outcomes to the lack of scholarly attention to the relationship between external interveners. Specifically, we argue that two-sided intervention prolongs civil wars when the intervening states on different sides of the conflict are rivals. The competitive relationship motivates the interveners to maintain or reinforce their sponsorship of protégé, which would prolong the civil war by exacerbating the commitment problem between the warring parties domestically. We test our argument using multiple survival models on civil wars between 1975-2020, and the findings are consistent with our theoretical expectations. Civil wars with two-sided military interventions last longer when the two intervening parties are in a rival relationship. In addition, we were able to check the mechanism by finding that rival intervenors stay longer in civil wars than others do. Overall, this study contributes to our understanding of the impact of the intervention on civil war by examining the relationship between intervenors instead of focusing solely on their number.

Authors

• Merve Keskin, University of Pittsburgh

• Jungmin Han, Trinity College Dublin