Why Do the Baltic States Differ in Their Level of Commitment to NATO?

• In Event: Alliance Politics

Abstract

Even though Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania all face a similarly high threat from Russia, their willingness to contribute to NATO over the past two decades has varied significantly. On a per capita basis, Estonia has contributed the most, Latvia the least, and Lithuania sometimes higher and sometimes lower. I argue that these differences are best explained by differences in strategic culture. Estonia’s strategic culture, heavily influenced by Finland’s, relies on territorial defense, mass conscription, and total societal defense. Latvia’s strategic culture emphasizes a small, specialized, all-volunteer force that is trained for rapid deployment into crisis areas. Lithuania’s culture has been somewhat torn between competing models, depending on parties in power. While Estonia’s culture is seemingly at odds with NATO’s preference for rapidly deployable forces to fill a niche role, the country’s culture has paradoxically led it to have greater deployable resources and greater willingness to contribute to NATO out-of-area missions. This finding suggests that NATO has perhaps mis-incentivized its small, eastern European member states and should consider shifting its guidance, especially in the context of today’s much higher Russian threat.

Author

• Scott Cooper, Brigham Young University