Can Election Quality Shape Voter Confidence?

• In Event: New Insights for African Politics from Experimental Methods

Abstract

How does a citizen's experience voting at a polling place on election day shape their beliefs about electoral integrity and legitimacy? Waiting in a long line as taciturn election staff slowly check voters into a disorganized polling place may signal a lack of procedural quality to citizens. A more efficient and professional process may inspire confidence in the election. In turn, such experiences may inform citizen beliefs about electoral integrity and democratic legitimacy. Importantly, electoral quality may attenuate partisan responses to electoral losses, inoculating voters from ``sore loser'' effects. This study uses a prospective natural experiment conducted during Kenya's 2022 General Election to examine the link between experiences of election quality and beliefs about electoral integrity. The design consists of three parts. First, a policy-based discontinuity introduces exogenous variation in voters' experiences of a higher or lower quality election experience. Second, an election day survey records voter opinions on election quality and legitimacy as the voter leaves the polling station. Third, a follow up mobile phone survey tracks how these perceptions change after the announcement of election results. The study generates the first quasi-experimental results demonstrating that improving the material quality of an election can improve citizen evaluations of electoral integrity.

Author

• Andy Andrew Harris, New York University Abu Dhabi