How Partisan Poll Watchers Affect Citizen Confidence in Elections

• In Event: Election Observation and Public Confidence in Elections

Abstract

Around the world, partisan poll watchers observe as elections are conducted and votes tallied. In theory, poll watchers safeguard the integrity of the franchise by ensuring that votes are fairly counted and contesting any irregularities in real time. By protecting parties’ ability to compete on a level playing field, partisan poll watchers should also bolster citizen confidence in the franchise when they are present. Yet, because partisan poll watchers sometimes alter election outcomes, they may raise voters’ suspicion and ultimately decrease their confidence in elections. This paper assesses the effect of partisan poll watchers on voters’ confidence in elections using data from a survey experiment and an exit poll conducted in Peru. We find that voters are, on average, more trusting of elections where partisan poll watchers are present. However, voters express less trust of elections where a single poll watcher represents their least preferred party. Focus group interviews illustrate the mechanisms that underly these average effects. This project has important implications for voters’ beliefs about electoral fairness in the short term and, in the longer term, the legitimacy and stability of democracy.

Authors

• Mollie Cohen, Purdue University

• Amy Erica Smith, Iowa State University