Polarized Voters’ Attitudes toward Foreign Electoral Interventions

• In Event: Public Opinion and Foreign Policy

Abstract

A widening number of countries increasingly use foreign electoral interventions to influence the political trajectories of other states. Growing empirical evidence suggests their effectiveness when compared with military interventions. As the FEIs aim to influence public opinion in the target countries in favor of the selected candidates, it is important to examine how the public reacts to the foreign electoral interventions (FEIs) and detect which segment of society is more susceptible to the FEIs. This paper contributes to this discussion by questioning the link between the level of polarization and attitudes toward FEIs by comparing the effects of different forms of polarization on public opinion toward FEIs. The paper also examines the limits of polarization by considering the effect of the magnitude of FEIs and the image of the intervening country on public opinion towards FEIs. Lastly, the study also measures polarized groups’ support for foreign policy responses. The paper’s discussions will rely on the results of a vignette experiment that will be conducted with approximately 4500 adults in the US in October 2022. The paper aims to contribute to the academic discussions on the implications of negative polarization on public opinion and the distinction between positive and negative partisanship, and the policy discussion on foreign electoral interventions.

Author

• Emirhan Ozkan, Rutgers University