Extremity and Electability in Party Nomination Contests

• In Event: Candidates and Campaigns in U.S. Politics

Abstract

While many theories of polarization posit that voters in parties prefer candidates who take extreme issue positions, there is little evidence that shows how these preferences might vary over increasingly extreme positions. In this study, fielded on the 2020 CES, we use a conjoint experiment to unpack how voters react to a variety of extreme-to-moderate issue positions on a variety of issues, alongside more common biographical candidate information. As outcomes, we assess both candidate preference as well as perceptions of electability among voters, allowing us to unpack any strategic considerations voters might have. We find that voters reward candidates who position themselves as party-typical on most issues, but find little evidence that voters penalize ideologically extreme candidates.

Authors

• Kimberly Twist, San Diego State University

• Logan Dancey, Wesleyan University

• Stephen N Goggin, San Diego State University

• John A. Henderson, Yale University

• Geoffrey Sheagley, University of Georgia

• Alexander George Theodoridis, University of Massachusetts Amherst