Out of Touch? Elite Readings of Public Opinion about Muslim Inclusion

• In Event: Mini-Conference on Politics in Post-industrial Societies IV: Perceptions, Preferences & Partisanship in Diverse Societies

Abstract

In the so-called culture wars, where cultural liberals are pitted against cultural conservatives, the charge that the liberal and well-educated elite are out-of-touch with ordinary people is a core claim. Previous research has contributed to explaining the gravity of the situation pointing to the vicissitudes of affective polarization and the depths of social, economic, and cultural divides. Far less research has so far scrutinized the “out of touch” hypothesis. This paper addresses that research gap. Zooming in on a core issue in the Western European version of the culture war, that of Muslim minority inclusion, the paper examines when and why core democratic actors misread public opinion. The data consists of a series of survey experiments embedded in no less than four coordinated panels fielded in Norway and covering elected representatives, public officials, journalists, and voters. Most individuals elected to or employed in core democratic institutions have more liberal views than the general public in all the questions studied. However, this difference does not turn into an overly rosy reading of public opinion on the part of politicians, bureaucrats and journalists. To the contrary, there is evidence that they take in quite accurate signals about public opinion. When examining what voters think, by contrast, we find evidence consistent with the idea that they have in mind a far-right exemplar voter, rather than an average voter, when they form their beliefs about the public will.

Authors

• Ingrid Faleide, University of Bergen

• Paul M. Sniderman, Stanford University

• Elisabeth Ivarsflaten, University of Bergen