The Effects of Local Government Capture by Criminal Organizations in Mexico

• In Event: Studies of Organized Crime and Conflict Mini-Conference: Democracy under Assault: Theory and Evidence

Abstract

Non-state actors often use force to influence local governments in order to sway policymaking, capture rents, and co-opt local bureaucracies. What are the effects of these interventions? I evaluate the capture of municipal governments in Mexico by criminal organizations in 80 localities around the country between 2018 and 2021. Criminal groups sought to co-opt local authorities to facilitate their illicit economic activities, appropriate government resources, and discourage state repression. Pairing detailed violent event records with data on crime and corruption, I find that attempts to capture local governments increased rates of local extortion and corruption, but had no effect on overall levels of violence or other forms of crime. Drawing on government records and machine learning classification of satellite imagery to measure the destruction of airstrips used by criminal groups, I show that capture did not lead to increased state repression.

Author

• Andres Uribe, University of Wisconsin-Madison