The Effect of Local Agreements on Violence in Civil Conflict

• In Event: Studies of Organized Crime and Conflict Mini-Conference: Criminal and Civil Conflict, Criminal and Rebel Governance

Abstract

Why do some civilians engage in local conflict management with non-state armed groups in violent settings? There is a growing body of research examining civilian behavior in violent conflict. Scholars contend that civilians play a crucial role in conflict zones by sharing information and engaging in rebel governance. Yet, civilians also shape conflict dynamics through resistance and protest. These studies present evidence that civilians have a significant role in conflict management. I extend these arguments by showing that civilian agency factors into conflict by signing local ceasefires and humanitarian agreements with non-state armed groups. Using micro-level data on civilian-belligerent cooperation in Sub-Saharan Africa, I develop a new spatial measure of wartime cooperation and examine the consequences of local agreements for wartime violence. I find that while local agreements with civilian participation reduce one-sided violence, it also contributes to the resolution of communal conflicts in violent areas. This study contributes to the literature in two ways. It integrates civilian communities as unique actors into local conflict management frameworks, alongside non-state groups and local state institutions. It also shows that societal dynamics play a crucial role in determining non-state violence against civilians.

Author

• Merve Keskin, University of Pittsburgh