Towards an Increasingly Multipolar International System; Evidence and Implications

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Abstract

Future socioeconomic development has broad implications for international relations as patterns of demographic, economic, and political dynamics shift the material structure of the international system, causing some nations to have greater relative shares of material capabilities and opportunities for economic interdependence. This paper uses the shared socioeconomic pathways projections (SSP) in the International Futures modeling platform to forecast multiple indices measuring multidimensional developments in the international system from 2017 to 2100. This scenario space highlights durable transformations in the international system, including the relative rise and decline of China, relative decline of the West, and the relative rise of the global south driven by reducing fertility rates and economic convergence. I argue that long-term projections can be helpful for shaping how social scientisits and policy-makers think about the structure of the international system and can help inform debates about the role of prediction in research.

Author

• Jonathan Moyer, University of Denver