First Steps towards Integrating Political Institutions into Climate Scenarios

• In Event: Integrating Political Futures into Climate Scenarios – What Is in It for Political Science?

Abstract

The introduction and implementation of climate-related policies are fundamentally influenced by political dynamics. However, political institutions are not integrated in global climate scenarios (Future Scenarios) or in the underlying architecture (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs) used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to identify the most effective pathways to meeting climate change targets. This paper identifies necessary research steps for integrating political factors in climate scenarios and proposes a set of quantifiable political factors, which matter for the adoption and implementation of climate policies. We find that it is necessary to substantiate the theoretical and empirical underpinnings of a variety of types of political institutions (democracy versus autocracy) and their influence on different climate actions. While it has been uncontested that strong state institutions are necessary for effective policy outcomes, the relevance of political regime type (democracy versus autocracy) has been contested. Some claim that an “iron fist” is needed to take uncomfortable but necessary decisions to mitigate climate change. This paper addresses this contested field by combining both perspectives. Based on a first review of the main findings on the relationship between political regime type and climate actions, it provides a conceptualization of measurable political and state institutions, namely accountability (vertical, horizontal, diagonal) and implementation capacity.

Authors

• Jessica Jewell

• Julia Leininger, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS, formerly German Development Institute)

• Staffan I. Lindberg, V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg

• Marina Nord, University of Gothenburg

• Christopher Wingens, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)