Development, Conflict & Cooperation in the Global South: Bayesian Case Studies

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

This panel showcases case study research from a diverse group of early career scholars on development, within-state conflict, and cross-state cooperation in the Global South. We will explore themes pertaining to interactions between domestic and international actors and institutions, as well as prospects for conflict resolution, building state capacity, and effective policy learning. Jerik Cruz begins the session with an analysis of integration into the global knowledge economy via the offshore services trade in the Philippines, Malaysia, and Mexico. The author argues that transnational diasporas and characteristics of national bureaucracies shape varying levels of developmental success in this sector across the countries. Turning to within-state conflict, Yunizar Adiputera highlights the role of democratic reputation vis a vis both domestic and international audiences in motivating states to seek peaceful solutions to separatist conflicts, with a focus on Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines. Marco Alcocer then shifts the discussion of conflict to criminal organizations with a focus on Mexico, providing a theory that explains the logic of expansion into new territories as well as the patterns of state capture that ensue. Finally, Kenichi Doi and Yuan Wang return to the theme of development, examining cooperation summits with Africa that have been initiated by Japan and China. They emphasize the agency of African elites, as opposed to international development agencies or structural conditions, in promoting convergence of policy ideas and themes across these development cooperation forums.
All of the authors employ Bayesian reasoning in their case studies. This methodology closely mirrors how qualitative scholars tend to naturally approach inference, while affording greater analytic rigor and a systematic framework for evaluating how strongly available evidence supports the leading hypothesis over rivals (Fairfield & Charman 2022, CUP).
Our discussants, Susanna Campbell and Gustavo Flores, bring extensive expertise on development policy, as well as peacebuilding and international aid, and state capacity and law enforcement, respectively. In addition to these topics, we also hope to stimulate a conversation about how Bayesian reasoning can be incorporated most effectively into case-study research.

Sub Unit

• Division 12: Comparative Politics of Developing Countries

Individual Presentations

• Diasporic Networks and the Offshored Knowledge Economy in the Global South - Jerome Patrick Diaz de Rivera Cruz, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

• Democratic Reputation and State Response to Separatist Movements - Yunizar Adiputera, University of Florida

• Establishing Criminal Governance in New Territories - Marco Alcocer, University of California, San Diego

• Policy Learning in African Cooperation Summits: The Role of African Agency - Yuan Wang; Kenichi Doi, Peking University

Chair

• Tasha A. Fairfield European University Institute

Discussants

• Susanna Campbell American University

• Gustavo A. Flores-Macias Cornell University