Forward Deployment, Coercive Diplomacy, and Conflict

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

In an age of great-power competition, debates about deterrence and troop postures have received new life. This panel brings together scholars to address questions of particular forms of deterrence, in particular "tripwire" deployments. Revisiting older literatures in the light of theoretical and methodological advances holds out the promise of illuminating urgent theoretical and policy questions about under what conditions pledges will be more or less credible. The panel also addresses “false flag” incidents, which have been hypothesized to invoke similar mechanisms regarding public justifications for the use of force. The panel brings together emerging scholars from U.S. and international institutions. These papers study public opinion using surveys of mass and elite audiences in the United States and Europe, enabling deeper engagement through the use of similar instruments.

Sub Unit

• Division 20: Foreign Policy

Individual Presentations

• Outside Threats and Public Perceptions of the US Military in Poland - Carla Martinez Machain, University at Buffalo; Michael E. Flynn, Kansas State University; Michael A. Allen, Boise State University

• How Low Can You Go? The Effects of Low Credibility False Flag Incidents - Dov H. Levin, University of Hong Kong

• How Much Does China’s Rise Matter? A Cross-Regional Analysis of Threat Level - Yuji Idomoto, University of California San Diego

• What Reassures in Military Alliances? Identifying Sender-Receiver Gaps - Brian Blankenship, University of Miami; Erik Lin-Greenberg, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

• Contextual Tripwire Effects? Exploring Public and Elite Reactions to Attacks - Paul Musgrave, University of Massachusetts; Steven Ward, University of Cambridge

• Extended Deterrence, Military Casualties, and Public Support for War - Joshua Alley, University College Dublin; Todd S. Sechser, University of Virginia

Chair

• Jiyoung Ko Korea University

Discussant

• Dan Reiter Emory University