Population and Politics

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

The size and make up of a political unit are fundamental to its members’ perceptions of their collective rights and responsibilities. Yet too often scholars control for a political unit’s demographic size while ignoring that population can both shape and be shaped by political outcomes and preferences. This panel corrects this omission. In gathering some the latest research on population and politics, it explores the political causes and consequences of population size across a range of regions, levels of analysis and research designs. Together, this panel’s contributors expose the many ways demography structures politics, and how politics in turn can structure demography.

For example, in “Stereotyping along the Urban-Rural Divide: Comparative Evidence from Europe,” Hegewald probes whether Europe’s urban and rural communities are in fact politically polarized. Buttressing open-ended survey responses with a conjoint experiment fielded across nine European states, Hegewald investigates whether urbanites are less nationalistic than their rural peers. This project uncovers how urbanization impacts Europeans’ sense of national identification.

Ascending from the individual to the city level, “City Population Size and Pork Barrel Projects: Evidence from Brazil” examines the relationship between city size and access to discretionary infrastructure funding. Montini and Post propose that because smaller cities have less own-source revenue for infrastructure projects, mayors of smaller cities are more likely to lobby for discretionary infrastructure funds. They test their hypothesis with an original dataset of over thirty thousand budget amendments in Brazilian legislation from 2015 to 2019. Interviews and data from social media help Montini and Post illustrate the mechanisms underpinning their theory.

“The Politics of Consumption City Growth”, however, demonstrates that politics can in fact shape city size. Rogers and Hammam document the rise of Latin American consumption cities – cities that rely on exporting primary good – with data from nightlight and population estimates between 1992 and 2020. They show that Latin American consumption city growth was most likely during commodity booms and when presidents needed legislative support from commodity dependent regions.

Population size at the neighborhood level also matters for political participation and mobilization. This is especially true for minority populations who might face distinct challenges to voice their concerns and remain in place. "Despite Disinformation and Urban Marginalization: Minority Mobilization" expands current literature on minority political participation and mobilization, explaining a unique and alternative pattern of minority political participation from within the urban economic system, devoid of civil unrest. It demonstrates how Latinx business owners utilize gentrification to leverage their political power and claim space ownership. Such political participation manifests through establishing political businesses, politicizing businesses for grassroots activism and founding and participating in organizations concerning urban politics.

Lastly, “The Blessings of Scarcity: The Institutional Underpinnings of Small States’ Prosperity” interrogates the political consequences of size at the state level. Bin Khalid and Monroe demonstrate that states’ past demographic size can be a powerful predictor of their long-term development. They argue that low population levels in the early years of independence incentivize leaders of newly independent small states to open their markets and employ relatively large public sectors. These policies sustain newly independent small states’ economic integration, fueling their long-term prosperity. Bin Khalid and Monroe test their argument by examining the developmental trajectories of all 82 states that gained independence between 1946 and 1975. They find that newly independent states with smaller populations during this era outperform their larger peers across numerous contemporary measures of economic development. A comparative case study of Oman and South Yemen illustrates the mechanisms and channels of persistence linking early independence population size and long-term development.

Together, this panel exhibits the forefront of research on population size and politics at the individual, sub-national and cross-national level. Spanning regions, questions and empirical strategies, its papers promise to foster a vibrant and innovative discussion on size and politics.

Sub Unit

• Related Groups / Comparative Urban Politics

Individual Presentations

• City Population Size and Pork Barrel Projects: Evidence from Brazil - Alison E. Post, University of California, Berkeley; Isabella C. Montini, University of California, Berkeley

• Stereotyping along the Urban-Rural Divide: Comparative Evidence from Europe - Sven Hegewald, ETH Zurich

• The Politics of Consumption City Growth - Melissa Ziegler Rogers, Claremont Graduate University; Soha Hammam, Claremont Graduate University

• The Institutional Underpinnings of Small States Prosperity - Steve Monroe, National University of Singapore

• Despite Disinformation and Urban Marginalization: Minority Mobilization - Yael Shmaryahu-Yeshurun, University of California, San Diego

Chair

• John Gerring University of Texas at Austin

Discussant

• Scott Abramson University of Rochester