The Impact of Decision-Maker Attributes on International Security

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

Foreign policy is made by individuals, making it important to understand the role of individual-level factors in shaping foreign policy decision-making. The papers on this panel examine how personality, psychology, and bureaucratic politics impact foreign policy decision-making and international diplomacy in international security contexts. Jost, Kertzer, Min, and Schub analyze the effect of an advisor's personal traits on their sway over foreign policy with the aid of a new dataset of recommendations made during foreign policy deliberations with the U.S. President from 1947 to 1988. Holmes and Kaplow investigate the role of psychological trust in determining uncertainty over a signal sender’s identity and its impacts on international diplomacy. Aoki scrutinizes how “negativity bias” impacts the perceptions of both experts and non-experts in government when evaluating an adversary’s intentions. Harden provides an investigation of the connection between presidential narcissism and the likelihood of issuing a public statement and finds that presidents with a high level of narcissism are less likely to issue public statements of resolve. Lastly, Sendinc offers a novel theory of leader narcissism and status dissatisfaction and shows that individuals with a high degree of narcissism are more likely to possess status dissatisfaction and are more likely to take part in conflict to increase their status.

Sub Unit

• Division 19: International Security 

Individual Presentations

• Advisory Influence in Foreign Policy Decision-Making - Tyler C. Jost, Brown University; Joshua D. Kertzer, Harvard University; Eric Min, UCLA; Robert Schub, Rutgers University, New Brunswick

• Who Shall I Say Is Calling? Signal Sender Uncertainty in International Diplomacy - Marcus Holmes, The College of William & Mary; Jeff Kaplow, College of William & Mary

• Biases, Expertise, and Assessments of Intentions in International Politics - Yu Aoki, Institute for Security and Conflict Studies, The George Washington University

• Narcissists Acting Out: Coercive Diplomacy, Dramatic Threats, and Fuzzy Signals - John Patrick Harden, Dartmouth College

• Taking It Personally: Leader Narcissism and Status Dissatisfaction - Tuba Sendinc, Penn State University

Chair

• Richard K. Herrmann Ohio State University

Discussants

• Richard K. Herrmann Ohio State University

• Kathleen E Powers Dartmouth College