Integrating Political Futures into Climate Scenarios – What Is in It for Political Science?

Session Submission Type: Created Panel

Session Description

Long-term climate scenarios such as the ones used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have gained a lot of attention in the study of climate change and influence global policy-making. Despite of acknowledging the relevance of political developments generically, the primary socioeconomic scenarios – the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) that are used by the climate change research community to harmonize projections of future emissions, mitigation costs, and climate impacts – do not provide information about political developments. In this panel, we argue that without integrating political developments into climate scenarios, projections are unlikely to reflect the degree of challenges from climate change nor provide serious policy guidance on the barriers to climate action. Overall, there lies a great task ahead for political science research to contribute to climate scenario research by introducing sound theoretical assumptions on the interplay between climate and political development as well as quantifiable political factors. This panel provides insights into the state of the art of political science contributions to climate scenario research and seeks to identify a future research agenda for political science in scenario research.

Sub Unit

• Panels

Individual Presentations

• Bringing Political Science into Mainstream Climate Modeling Tools - Marina Andrijevic, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Elina Brutschin, Webster University Vienna, Austria

• Narratives for Political Development in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways - Halvard Buhaug, Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO); Elisabeth Gilmore, Carleton University; Julia Leininger, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS, formerly German Development Institute); Staffan I. Lindberg, V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg; Jonas Vestby, PRIO; Nina von Uexkull, University of Konstanz

• Towards an Increasingly Multipolar International System; Evidence and Implications - Jonathan Moyer, University of Denver

• First Steps towards Integrating Political Institutions into Climate Scenarios - Jessica Jewell; Julia Leininger, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS, formerly German Development Institute); Staffan I. Lindberg, V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg; Marina Nord, University of Gothenburg; Christopher Wingens, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)

Chair

• Staffan I. Lindberg V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg

Discussants

• Francis Fukuyama Stanford University

• Wei Peng Harvard University

• Gabriele S. Spilker University of Konstanz