(iPoster) Dissonance or Dialogue? Divergent Korean Public and State Views on Japan Ties

• In Event: Poster Session: Political Psychology I & II
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Political Psychology II

Abstract

Since the inauguration of President Yoon Suk-yeol in May 2022, Japan-South Korea relations have seen significant improvements. In his speech on the 104th anniversary of the March 1 Independence Movement, he described Japan as “one that shares universal values with Korea and cooperates on security, economy, and other global agendas,” reflecting his administration’s policy of reconciliation with Japan. However, during the same period, public opinion polls indicated that most South Koreans opposed the reconciliation process with Japan. Existing research predominantly focuses on transforming President Yoon’s diplomatic policy towards Japan, often neglecting the underlying reasons for the divergence between governmental and public perceptions.
 
This study employs cognitive dissonance theory to address this gap and analyze the factors influencing these divergent perceptions and the resultant cognitive dissonance. Cognitive Dissonance Theory explains the psychological discomfort and attitude adjustments when the public confronts governmental reconciliation policies that conflict with entrenched historical memories. Grounded in this theory, the study explores how the cognitive dissonance between the government’s reconciliation policies and individual historical cognition affects public attitudes towards these policies. Several hypotheses will be proposed based on related theories to guide this investigation.
 
To test the hypotheses, the public’s attitude toward reconciliation with Japan will be defined, measured, and treated as a dependent variable, while historical cognition and national identity will be defined, measured, and treated as independent variables. The acceptance of the government’s reconciliation policy with Japan by the South Korean public will be defined, measured, and used as a mediating variable. As perceptional variables, they are not measured against specific objective criteria but judged subjectively by the respondents based on their knowledge. Additionally, the public’s gender, age, income, education, political orientation, diplomatic experience, and media consumption preferences will be measured and used as control variables.
 
The research targets the entire South Korean populace, distributing approximately 2,500 online questionnaires via digital platforms. With a confidence level of 95% and an anticipated effective response rate of 20%, 400 valid questionnaires are required. This research will apply the quantitative method of Regression, Multi-Relation, and ANOVA Test to examine the relationship between IVs and DV using STATA. Also, this research will combine path analysis and bootstrap to examine the role of MV using both STATA and Mplus 8.0.

Author

• Zheng Zhou, Sciences Po